The rubber has finally "lived". The generation of "Tianjiao" took off.
Yesterday, the friends of the futures daily reporter rubber ring sighed in the circle of friends: rubber finally “live” over. This is due to the sharp rise in rubber futures prices in the afternoon. On the afternoon of the 21st, the funds entered the market and made a lot of Hujiao. As of press time, RU1901 increased its position by nearly 40,000 hands, causing RU1901 main contract to end its daily limit, and closed at 12,650 yuan/ton with a gain of 6.98%. In addition, RU1905, RU1908, etc. Related contracts have also risen sharply. Earlier, Monday's RU1901 contract closed at 11,915 yuan / ton with a 1.62% increase, ending last week's four consecutive yin, yesterday's daily limit is to give a drop of rubber and industry insiders this year, a “cardiotonic agent.”
Many industry insiders interviewed by the Futures Daily reporter said that the daily limit in the Hujiao disk was mainly due to the flood in Kerala, southern India, which caused the market to worry about the reduction of production caused by the infringement of rubber plantations.
Kerala's Chief Minister Vijayan wrote in the social media “Twitter” that Kerala suffered from “a severe flood in a hundred years” this year, and 324 people have been killed since the end of May and early June. It is understood that India's rubber production in Kerala accounts for 70% of India's total. The local rubber farmers mainly focus on planting rubber, which is the traditional rubber production area. The flooding in the main producing areas of India is expected to have a serious impact on local rubber production. India is the third largest rubber consumer in the world, and its performance in emerging countries is eye-catching. Rubber consumption has also continued to grow. This flooding has caused a gap in domestic production decline and future imports have increased.
A generation of “Tianjiao”, take off here?
“Continuous rainfall in the main producing areas of India has caused flood disasters. At present, there is no information on rubber tree disasters; if the post-disaster reconstruction affects the opening and closing in the next 1-2 months, it is expected to reduce production by 100,000-150,000 tons.” Guangcheng Futures Researcher Peng Cheng told the Futures Daily reporter. . According to the analysis of the CITIC Futures Research Department, Kerala in southern India suffered a major flood, which is estimated to affect the production of natural rubber of around 100,000 tons. The reduction in domestic production in India will lead to an increase in imports to Southeast Asia, which will affect exports to China and, in turn, force domestic consumption. Although the proportion of 100,000 tons is not large, it may still become the subject of long-term fund speculation. Chen Dong, a researcher at Baocheng Futures, also believes that the daily limit in the rubber market is due to the flooding in Kerala, southern India, which has caused market concerns about the reduction of production caused by rubber plantations.
According to Zhao Honghu, chief analyst of the Investment and Research Department of the German Futures Industry, the price of rubber has reached an absolute low level and has strong support. Under the influence of the overall commodity rising atmosphere, the fund-raising funds are ready to move. This afternoon, the black and chemical sector varieties have a large amount of capital outflows. The rubber has quickly increased its position. The 01 contract has increased its position to more than 30,000 hands. The funds flowed into the first place in the commodity market on the same day. It can be seen that this increase is the pulling of funds.
In addition, according to Peng Cheng, the recent news on the fundamentals of natural rubber is also available on August 20th. The Chinese government and the Malaysian government issued a joint statement and signed a series of cooperation documents, including the Hainan Provincial Agricultural Reclamation Bureau and the Malaysian Rubber Bureau. Memorandum of Understanding on Rubber Asphalt Pavement Technology and Tapping Automation Technology and Commercialization Cooperation. “This move is expected to increase the import of natural rubber to Malaysia and its subsequent application.” Peng Cheng told the Futures Daily reporter.
According to the memorandum, the two sides conduct talent exchange and cooperation in the field of scientific research to meet the needs of the rubber industry; share and exchange relevant information in training, research and innovation and commercialization; in the future, the two sides will cooperate in the field of modified rubber asphalt road technology and intelligent tapping equipment. Commercialization is the responsibility of Hainan Natural Rubber Industry Group Co., Ltd. Yang Sitao, chairman of Hainan Provincial Land Reclamation Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd., said that Hainan Land Reclamation will take the opportunity of signing this cooperation memorandum of understanding as an opportunity to actively implement the “going out” strategy, participate in the national “Belt and Road” initiative, and strengthen the natural rubber with Malaysian parties. Cooperation in product development and application, natural rubber trade, etc., to promote the structural reform of the supply side of Hainan Agricultural Reclamation, adjust the industrial structure, improve the internationalization of Hainan's agricultural land, and strengthen the strength of the South China Agricultural Reclamation.
“But from the practical use, the first is the technical difficulties, the development of the new formula to the test and promotion takes a long time, the current SBS modification of the asphalt modification technology, the water is difficult to solve the thirst, the development of successful rubber Modified asphalt will change the supply and demand structure to the bull market by then. In addition, the newly modified rubber asphalt is currently used in reclaimed rubber, and the annual output of recycled rubber in China is large （2016 China's reclaimed rubber production is 4.6 million tons）, and the price is low （ At present, the price is only less than 3,000 yuan. Natural rubber has no competitive advantage compared with recycled rubber. Therefore, it is too early to use natural rubber modified asphalt,” said Zhao Honghu.
Demand is still in the off-season
In fact, in order to curb the continued sluggishness of rubber prices, several rubber-producing countries have jointly introduced measures to restrict exports and reduce the cultivation of rubber plantations, but they still cannot form an immediate boosting effect in the short term. According to Chen Dong, the supply pressure of natural rubber is still evident in the background of rubber production season. According to data from the International Rubber Organization （IRSG）, in June, Thailand's natural rubber production increased by 3.3% year-on-year to 345,000 tons; Indonesia increased by 3% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter; Vietnam increased by 12.5%; Malaysia increased by 4.3%; Only India fell 15.6% year-on-year, down 25.5% from the previous month. The total production of natural rubber in the above five major rubber producing countries increased by 1.2% year-on-year. In the first six months of this year, Thailand's natural rubber production increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and Vietnam increased by 8.7%. Only Indonesia and Malaysia fell by 11.2% and 2.4% respectively.
In addition, since the market is still in the off-season of the terminal consumer market, the production and sales performance of the car market is not good. According to the China Automobile Association's data on automobile production and sales in July, in July 2018, automobile production reached 2.0428 million units, down 10.78% from the previous month and down 0.66% year-on-year; sales were 1,889,100 units, down 16.91% from the previous month and down 4.02% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars produced 1,725,300 units, down 10.64% from the previous month, down 1.90% year-on-year; sales were 1,589,500 units, down 15.19% from the previous month and down 5.30% year-on-year. In terms of auto dealer inventory, although the car dealer inventory warning index in July was 53.9%, down 5.3 percentage points from the previous month, the index was above the warning line.
In addition, according to the reporter, due to the influence of Typhoon No. 18 “Wambia”, heavy rains and heavy rains occurred in most parts of Shandong in recent days. Some heavy rains occurred from 17:00 on the 17th to 14:00 on the 20th. The average precipitation is 135.5 mm. As a major province for the production of tires in China, Dongying, Weifang and other tire companies are in the severely affected areas. It is reported that most of the tire enterprises produce tire equipment due to serious water accumulation in the plant or damage to the power plant equipment. The time for resuming work is temporarily uncertain. Many manufacturers expect to resume production at least one week later, and some manufacturers say at least half a month. Between the high-level operation of the previous start-up, the current tire enterprise inventory is relatively sufficient. However, with the lapse of production time, it is not excluded that some specifications and models are out of stock. At the same time, the reporter learned that there is no obvious fluctuation in the start of tire enterprises outside Shandong. At the beginning of the month, the tire companies with parking maintenance activities are now operating normally, and there is no new adjustment in sales policies.
In the context of poor performance on the demand side, domestic natural plastics inventory continued to rise. According to statistics, as of July 31, 2018, rubber inventories in Qingdao Free Trade Zone continued to climb, with total inventories increasing by 3.05% to 206,200 tons, of which natural rubber stocks rose 1.66% to 79,800 tons; synthetic rubber stocks rose 4.07%. To 1.2227 million tons; composite rubber stocks held steady at 0.37 million tons. The increase in inventory is mainly driven by the inventory of natural rubber and synthetic rubber, especially the increase in synthetic rubber stocks is more obvious.
How to interpret the “30 years of Hedong, 30 years of Hexi” in the magnificent rubber market is not uncommon in the futures market, and each industry also has a price “cycle” that meets its industrial characteristics. But for rubber, its price volatility is particularly prosperous in this market, and the downturn is particularly long. In fact, since 2011, rubber has entered a long period of decline. In the past seven years, the price of natural rubber has continued to drop from a high of 40,000 yuan / ton, even at the beginning of 2016, once fell below 10,000 yuan / ton, and then The rebound in late 2016 and early 2017 is not the beginning of a new round of bull market. The price of natural rubber continues to fall from the price of 20,000 yuan/ton or more at the beginning of 2017. After the deep diving of Hujiao in June, the natural rubber launched a low-end oscillation market for nearly two months. According to statistics, since 2018, the main contract of natural rubber has fallen by more than 11%. Wenhua Finance's rubber index also dropped from 17,895 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year to 12,175 yuan / ton, a drop of 32%.
A generation of “Tianjiao”, take off here?
In fact, one of the most striking features of the natural rubber market in 2018 is that prices have fallen all the way, constantly innovating low. Although the main producing countries repeatedly implemented a series of policies such as reducing production and export restrictions during the year to stimulate the price of rubber, it still failed to curb the decline in the price of rubber. The opportunity of arbitrage brought by the rising water in the distant month has led to an increase in the volume of imports, and the inventory continues to be at a relatively high level. The trade friction between China and the United States has escalated, which has aggravated the concerns of the industry about the loss of tires to the United States, which in turn affects the amount of natural rubber used by enterprises. The emotions deepen. In addition, the US dollar continued to rise, the global financial market turmoil is expected to heat up, and the commodity market is under full pressure. It is undoubtedly worse for the rubber market that continues to slump. Although the current price is already at the bottom, it is difficult to continue to enlarge the downward space. However, in the case that the overall supply and demand of the industry is weak and the external environment is not good, it is difficult to get out of the weak situation for the time being. Yesterday's intraday trading limit may also be just a release of emotions in the short term, and it may not last.
Insiders said that the strong rise of Hujiao yesterday was mainly reflected in the use of funds and emotions. Although the fundamentals were affected by floods in the rubber-producing areas of Kerala, India, rubber is expected to reduce production and increase imports and Indonesian leaf disease, which boosted the market's further rebound, but limited support for the market.
Peng Cheng said that in terms of the current price difference, Hujiao was the top loser due to systemic risk last Thursday, but the spot was relatively resistant after the market. In recent months, the RU1809 premium glue was around 300 yuan/ton, and the space for further decline was limited. “Overall, Hujiao is growing faster today, and the funds are actively entering the market. It is estimated that it will rise. It will let the bullets fly for a while. But in fact, there is no more improvement in the fundamentals of the domestic industrial chain. It is recommended to go up with the bottom,” Peng Cheng said. （This article only represents the author's personal opinion, according to this operation, at your own risk）
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